It’s a tall task to put a future value on bitcoin.
Why?
Old school valuation methods don’t work for bitcoin and other cryptos.
Ratios like price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-cash flow are irrelevant. Unlike companies in the stock market, bitcoin doesn’t produce revenues, earnings, or cash flows.
Now, that doesn’t stop investors from trying to peg a future price. There are alternative methods – different than how we value traditional assets – to attempt to value bitcoin.
In May, we walked you through four of these valuation models: exponential price growth trend, Metcalfe’s Law, stock-to-flow ratio, and gold-to-bitcoin ratio.
Each of those four charts predicts bitcoin will hit at least $100,000 by the end of 2021.
Today, I’ll show you a different chart. It doesn’t come with a price forecast. But it does plot bitcoin’s future direction.
More importantly, if you think it’s too late to get into bitcoin – that you already missed the boat – this chart shows that there’s still time to get in before bitcoin really takes off…
Follow the Curve
A few months ago, I traveled to Orlando for a Bitcoin & Blockchain Educational Class & Luncheon via a special invitation.
Brian Estes (CIO – Off the Chain Capital), Perianne Boring (Founder & President – Chamber of Digital Commerce), and Tim Keefe (Partner – LedgerStat Capital) hosted the event.
For about two hours, these three renowned experts lectured a sold-out audience of 40 attendees. They covered everything from the history of money to blockchain basics to why bitcoin belongs in a diversified investment portfolio.
I learned several things at this event. But my greatest takeaway came from one chart.
Here it is:
Source: Off the Chain Capital
S-Curve analysis explores the adoption path of new technologies. It shows the time it takes for a new technology to go from 0% to 10% adoption is the same time it takes it to go from 10% to 90% adoption.
You can see what I’m talking about in this second chart, which shows the S-curve for various other technologies…
New technologies, such as bitcoin, can be valued by the “network effect.” What this means is that adding new users to a network results in its exponential gains in value.
Think about computers. Apple invented the personal computer (PC) in 1976. In 1980, about one-tenth of 1% of households owned a PC.
So, let’s use 1980 as the start of the PC revolution. By 1990, 10% of households owned PCs. And in 2000, 90% of households had a PC. So it took 10 years to go from 0% to 10% adoption, and 10 years to go from 10% to 90% adoption.
If you invested in the 10–90% area, you invested in companies like Dell, Microsoft, Intel, etc. From 1990–2000, Dell was up 88,918%… Microsoft was up 9,562%… and Intel was up 3,788%. Early S-curve investors made a lot of money.
Bitcoin is on the same path…
Back in 2016, few believed bitcoin was a viable long-term investment. It was called a fad and a fraud, and some even dismissed it as a currency for criminals. But we knew they were off the mark.
At that same time, we were telling readers to get in early… that the naysayers were wrong and bitcoin adoption would explode. And we were right.
Investors who took our advice at that time made life-changing gains. They turned $500 into $14,982 by 2019… $1,000 into $29,964… gains of nearly 3000%. And all occurred in the “too early” stage, when only about 10% of households owned the currency.
Today, about 15% of households own bitcoin. And we’re about to see it go even higher…
Just a few weeks ago, payments processing giant PayPal announced the launch of a new service allowing its 346 million customers to buy, hold, and sell crypto directly from their PayPal accounts.
So if bitcoin’s growth trajectory is akin to the internet, cell phone, and microwave, then we’re now entering the final innings of explosive mass adoption.
Thanks to PayPal’s announcement, bitcoin is near $14,000 today… but only about 100–200 million people are using it. In 10 years, when billions of people are using bitcoin, its value will be exponentially greater.
Life-changing bitcoin gains, on the other hand, will be a thing of the past… Fortunately, there’s still time to get in…
This May Be Your Last Chance
Timing is the key variable in investing.
The S-curve is a proven method to know when to get on the train and when to get off. And the most significant gains on the S-curve are between 10% and 90% adoption.
Right now, bitcoin’s adoption rate is 15%… but that train is about to leave the station.
Bitcoin adoption is swiftly accelerating. Wall Street has started to ante up. Hedge fund managers, large custodians, publicly traded companies, and wealth management firms are buying bitcoin. And thanks to PayPal, more retail investors are buying, too.
That’s why it’s so important to get in early and before adoption really takes off.
Remember, bitcoin has a fixed supply. With fixed supply and increased demand, prices have nowhere to go but up… but the clock is ticking. And there won’t be any second chances.
That’s why Daily editor Teeka Tiwari says its urgent you act now and get into crypto today…
Until recently, I would’ve said you were out of luck [trying to make life-changing gains in crypto again].
You waited too long and the train left the station without you. Here’s the thing, though: I would’ve been [and was] 100% wrong in saying that. It’s all because of an “accidental” discovery. I’ve found what could be the most powerful wealth building catalyst in crypto yet.
It’s a catalyst that has let previous crypto investors make over a half-million percent on one extraordinary idea. Just $500 put into the right idea with this catalyst could’ve made as much as $2.6 million in profits.
You see, Teeka says in the next few weeks, certain cryptocurrencies will hit “zero” on a special countdown clock, and that could send them exploding in price… and it’s going to happen regardless of where we are in the adoption S-curve.
It’s all thanks to one incredible “quirk” that you won’t hear about in the mainstream media… A catalyst that’s triggered rare and exceptional gains like 5,837%… 21,267%… 48,371%… 68,141% – in less than 12 months.
That’s why on Wednesday, November 11, at 8 p.m. ET, Teeka is holding a special briefing called The Crypto Catch Up: Your Last Chance To Get the Life You Want.
During this free event, he’ll reveal the name of one these special countdown tokens to all who attend and details on this “quirk” in their code… And as a bonus for signing up, you’ll receive Teeka’s free report on how to earn free bitcoin.
So, if you don’t own bitcoin, act now. You’ll need it to buy the coins Teeka recommends during the Catch-Up Countdown. Click here to reserve your seat today.
Regards,
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Grant Wasylik
Analyst, Palm Beach Daily