During the 2016 presidential election, the mainstream media were sizing the White House drapes for Hillary Clinton.
As you can see from the headlines below, the media thought Clinton would be a shoo-in. Most of their polls had her defeating Donald Trump, whom they considered to be politically naïve:
“Trump Has a Big Hispanic Problem in Florida”—The New Latino Voice, August 3, 2016
“A Different Forecasting Model Shows Big Win for Clinton”—The Hill, September 6, 2016
“Clinton’s Odds Rise Again”—CNN, November 8, 2016
We all know how that turned out…
Trump went on to become the 45th U.S. president, shocking the nation—and the world—with one of the biggest political upsets in history.
The Los Angeles Times said Trump’s epic victory “defied most pre-election polls and the opinions of the nation’s foreign policy, financial, and cultural elites.” And The New York Times declared it a “stunning repudiation of the Establishment.”
Now, the media have blamed the 2016 fiasco on a number of reasons: They oversampled urban voters and undersampled rural voters… They used outdated methods to reach potential voters (such as calling landlines instead of cell phones)… And many people lied to pollsters about their intentions to vote for Trump.
The ivory-tower academics and D.C. pundits can debate what went wrong. Today, I want to show you how my system got it right—and what it’s saying about the 2020 election…
My Stock-Picking System Gets Politics Right
Regular readers know I spent nearly two decades on Wall Street, at prestigious firms like Cantor Fitzgerald, trading more than $1 billion worth of stock for major clients.
But I walked away from it all and used my experience to develop my own “unbeatable” stock-picking system. I spent half a dozen years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to make sure it’s highly accurate, comprehensive, and effective.
My system scans nearly 5,500 stocks every day, looking for the best of the best that big institutions are likely buying by the truckload. And I use 80 complex algorithms to score and rank each one of them for strength across 29 factors.
It’s very powerful… Since 1990, on average, it’s identified half of the top 5% of names in the S&P 500 each year—including the No. 1 stock on the S&P 500 for the past six years in a row.
Now, you may be wondering what all this has to do with Trump’s historic 2016 victory. And the answer is: It seems the smart money can identify more than just triple-digit gains…
Predicting Trump’s Victory
Leading up to the election, everything was pointing to a Democratic win. The polls had Trump with a next-to-zero chance—or so the media said.
But something wasn’t matching the movement of the market. The data was telling us that Wall Street was preparing for an upset…
The market was breaking higher, but my system was picking up unusual institutional selling. It looked like the smart money was positioning for the downside. So at my research firm, we suggested to a number of people that Trump would win.
And if you remember, the markets ended up crashing the night of Trump’s victory. The following day, calls came in from people who recalled our suggestion of a Red Team win—when no one else had uttered anything even close.
You see, although the market was climbing, my system was signaling big selling was starting.
Based on this data, I judged that smart money firms—big hedge funds and Wall Street institutions—were anticipating a Trump victory. Fearing it would tank the markets, they were getting out of their positions ahead of time.
And it was spot-on…
The night Trump won, futures tanked 8% as the Establishment panicked. (The market quickly recovered, though, finishing 3% up the next day.)
The bottom line: My system picked up on what the smart money was doing.
At the time, it was selling due to the uncertainty of an untested Trump administration. And as predicted, Trump went on to win—despite the odds against him.
So what’s my system saying about 2020?
Four More Years?
It’s a little too early to say. But our data is suggesting that Trump won’t be just a one-term phenomenon…
Since the start of the year, we’ve seen lots of buying in growth-heavy sectors like consumer discretionary and infotech—specifically, in semiconductors.
When big institutions pile into stocks relying on future sales and earnings growth, it’s a sign of content with the current administration.
The buying in small caps also shows something interesting under the hood. It means Wall Street is positioned to ride more of the wave that we’ve been seeing.
So for now, the smart money is expecting a strong economy to continue and growth to stay. And this is all indicating to me that—whether you love him or hate him—Trump will be around for another four years.
That’s what my system is saying at the moment: Under current economic conditions, Trump is likely to win another term.
However, markets are volatile and politics are uncertain. Plenty can happen between now and November 2020, including impeachment…
Last week, Democrats launched an impeachment inquiry over allegations that the president pressured Ukraine to investigate his political rival, Joe Biden.
Of course, if the House votes to impeach Trump, it could derail his chances for another term. And you have to account for geopolitical wildcards, like a military conflict or escalating trade wars. Any of these events could rattle the markets.
The good news is, I look for the best stocks that the smart money is buying—regardless of who wins. Even in the most volatile times, there’s always a bull market going on somewhere, and I designed my system to find them.
Editor, Palm Beach Trader
P.S. Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, I’m pulling back the curtain on my system and putting it to the ultimate test.
I’ve invited a panel of outside experts—including the former head of Bloomberg Tradebook… a $2.5 billion asset manager Forbes called “The King of the Quants”… and a Master of Data Science from New York University who’s traded hundreds of billions of dollars for BNP Paribas and JPMorgan.
They’re going to dissect my system under real-world conditions. And I’ll even use it to identify the top stock in each of the hottest market sectors right now: 5G, tech, gold, crypto, and cannabis.
This might be the most profitable event you ever attend, so you don’t want to miss it. Reserve your spot to attend by clicking right here.