This is a mistake absolutely every investor has made at least once.
You hear a forecast, focus on the bits that make you feel good… and ignore the rest.
It usually depends on what you hold in your portfolio.
If you hold gold, you’ll listen to the doomsayers.
If you hold stocks, you’ll seek out optimistic opinions.
And the media will always be happy to provide you with whatever gets your “engagement.”
Here’s the latest example from The Wall Street Journal. (This one should appeal to the “gloom and doom” crowd.)
The article drives the point that a 40-year bull market that started back in 1982 is over.
Another one could begin anytime soon (the article doesn’t say outright that good times will never return), but “The Big One” is gone.
A 40-Year Bull Market?
Did you notice what’s wrong with this argument?
A 40-year bull market?!
This is news to me.
And the real issue is that other analysts ignore the underlying real estate cycle.
(It’s not really their fault. The knowledge has been systematically suppressed from economics textbooks because of how threatening the information is to the global elite.)
Back to facts… If you multiply 18.6 years (this is how long, on average, the real estate cycle lasts) by 2, you get 37.2 years.
That’s close enough to 40 years. But we’re talking about two complete cycles here, not one “bull market.”
And since the current cycle isn’t done yet, talking about the “end” of anything is nonsense.
In other words, there hasn’t been one “bull market” but two real estate cycles… And the current one isn’t over… yet.
No End of the Cycle and No Recession
I’ve been saying it for months now… And finally, the mainstream commentariat has slowly realized that the consensus opinion was wrong.
The end of the cycle will be an event of global proportions. It will be much more significant and visible than any recession in any particular country.
I don’t anticipate the cycle to turn for several years from now, according to the 18.6-year rule.
And as I’ve said repeatedly, there will be no recession this year.
Some analysts have finally started to realize that as well. From Goldman Sachs:
Goldman Sachs trimmed its probability that the U.S. will enter a recession within the next 12 months, expressing confidence that the Federal Reserve will be able to reduce inflation without causing an economic downturn.
Chief economist Jan Hatzius said the bank cut its probability of a near-term U.S. recession to 20% from 25% owing to recent data that has shown the economy to be resilient.
A resilient economy with ample liquidity and rising real estate prices would not enter a recession. Not yet.
Yes, we are in the late stages of the real estate cycle.
It’s a time I call the “Eleventh Hour.”
It’s a time when most assets appreciate, beginning with land and real estate. And depending on how you play it, these next few years can make or break your retirement.
When land and real estate start declining at a massive scale, only then will I be able to say that the end is near.
We’re Not There Just Yet
When it’s time to be defensive, we will be. And my readers will be the first to hear about it.
But right now, we’re in the “Eleventh Hour.” And because of the real estate cycle, we haven’t seen this moment for 20 years.
That’s why I’m holding a special event called The Eleventh Hour on Wednesday, July 26, at 8 p.m. ET.
During this briefing, I’ll go over what to expect during the Eleventh Hour…
I’ll talk about how you can learn to “see” the reliable cycles and patterns the market has followed for hundreds of years… and where you should put your money right now for the greatest gains.
You can automatically reserve your seat right here.
See you then.
Regards,
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Phil Anderson
Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson
P.S. To prepare you for the event, I want to give you the Eleventh Hour VIP Pack.
It’s a series of three reports that gives you all the background you need to follow along when you join me for the Eleventh Hour event.
It explains how I’ve given my readers the knowledge and ability to forecast market moves themselves… the proof of my stock-picking track record during the prior Eleventh Hour period… and a cheat sheet to prospering this time.
All you have to do is upgrade to VIP – which is easy and free. %%[IF (([isPaid] == true)) THEN]%%You can do that right here%%[ELSE]%%You can do that right here.